Since rookie players enter the NFL with a blank slate, it is more difficult to predict their success or failure; there are no sure things. Last year, for example, Joe Mixon fell well short of fantasy expectations, while Leonard Fournetteslightly exceeded them. And then there was Alvin Kamara. He was a league-winning player as a rookie.
Which side of the fence will Derrius Guice fall on in Year 1?
Prior to the NFL Draft, Guice was touted by most experts as the second-best running back prospect behind Saquon Barkley, but Guice surprisingly fell to the end of the second round. He was drafted by Washington with the 59th overall pick, making him the seventh running back off the board.
However, the fantasy community believes in Guice. At the moment, he is the 19th-ranked running back, according to MyFantasyCalculator's standard-league average draft position (ADP) data. He is second among rookies -- behind only the aforementioned Barkley.
We know Guice has great size (5'11, 224 pounds) and extraordinary size-adjusted speed (91st-percentile). His best comparable player on PlayerProfiler is Ezekiel Elliott. Could be worse, right? We also know Guice was productive at LSU, where he rushed for 2,638 yards in his final two years, averaging 6.3 yards per carry against the top-notch competition.
Photo by Keith Allison