Seeing opportunity meet talent is a wonderful thing. In both real life and in fantasy. For Toby Gerhart, he gets the opportunity only many of us can dream of - getting to be a starting NFL player.
Since many of us can't have that opportunity, we'll have to settle for seizing the opportunity in the fantasy world. Toby is taking his opportunity to Jacksonville and there opportunity meets him head on.
Toby Gerhart served as the understudy to Adrian Peterson for several seasons in Minnesota. When he had the opportunity to play due to AP's injuries he played admirably. Now he gets the chance to be the featured back for the Jags.
Talent Meets Opportunity
Through his first 4 seasons Toby Gerhart has 276 carries while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Although it isn't as many carries as one would like for a sample size, its a great start.
There is however a great thing about only having 276 carries in 4 seasons, there's very little wear and tear on that body. That means he should be able to handle a heavy load in Jacksonville.
He's not the quickest back you'll find and he sure isn't going to set highlight reels for breaking the edge, however he can break some tackles and run hard. Consistency is key to production. And that's gold to fantasy owners ears.
Comparing the Talent
Before you call me out, I'm not a Shonn Greene fan either. However he's a great comparison to what I believe we can see from Toby in 2014.
During the 2012 season Shonn Greene was still with the Jets and he ran the ball 276 times for a measly 3.9 yards per carry. I know it sounds unimpressive, however heres the kicker: He finished as a top-15 fantasy running back that year.
Now fantasy is a week-to-week game, not a season long one. So I understand that he needs to perform every week. However if he continues to go in the later rounds, I'd love to have him on my team. Who wouldn't want that kind of production from their Flex spot.
Toby Could Be a Top-15 Fantasy Running Back
The Jaguars were a mess offensively in 2013 and they're likely to be just as bad in 2014. Of course we're hoping for some improvement, and if the Jaguars are serious about giving him all the carries he can take, we as fantasy owners may be in luck.
All the Jags need to do is get near the endzone and let Toby run it in. He's moving up my ranks and will likely climb other fantasy football pros rankings as well. He could sneakily have 10-12 touchdowns this year. I'm not saying it's likely, but its possible,
So yes, I'm telling you there's a chance.