The NFL Draft is an annual exercise in probabilities. Each draft pick represents a blended average of bust rate, success rate, and varying levels of mediocrity. In a perfect system, those taken earlier represent the higher expected value, while those taken later represent the lesser expected value.
In other words, players selected in the first round have a higher projected net positive impact to their respective teams than those players selected in later rounds.
This makes sense, right?
Photo by Marianne O'Leary