Fantasy Advice

Fantasy Football: Julian Edelman Could Be a Draft Day Steal

By July 26, 2018 No Comments
Fantasy Advice - Kills - 2018 - Edelman

As the NFL continues to evolve toward a heavier and heavier pass-first attack, fantasy football owners should bring their attention to an offense like the New England Patriots.

In 2017, the Pats ranked at the top of the league in numberFire's Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play (0.17) metric and Adjusted Passing NEP per play (0.24) metric (0.24). For those of you unfamiliar, NEP is a metric used to track efficiency for teams and players, with the team side adjusted for strength of opponent, and accounts for down and distance. For a more detail breakdown, you can head over to our glossary.

What those numbers mean is that New England is a really strong, high-efficiency offense, and with Tom Brady back under center, there's high expectations for this offensive unit yet again. But it doesn't stop at efficiency. This is also a team that ranked seventh in total drop backs (621) in 2017, so there's a lot of passing volume to go around here.

Julian Edelman, a big part of this offensive scheme in recent years, will return after missing the 2017 campaign with a torn ACL. But after you account for the fact that the wide receiver will miss the first four games of 2018 due to suspension, we have seen a precipitous decline in his average draft position (ADP, data provided from Fantasy Football Calculator) this offseason:

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Photo by Brian J. McDermott

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