Every year there are players that the fantasy football community falls in love with. Some rightly so, others foolishly so. The fact of the matter is, fantasy football is a weekly game that is focused on mitigating risk. The Average Draft Position (ADP) of these six guys don't mitigate risk at all, they actually increase your risk ten-fold.
Now that's not to say that some of these players can't be a value. Some of them certainly can, however I never want to pay what is perceived as someone's ceiling at draft day. I'll take the safe fantasy player over the risky guy almost every time. I love the later round upside plays, which is why the following six guys are blowing my mind.
Fantasy Players Being Overdrafted in 2014
The Seattle Seahawks Defense - ADP: 8.04
Are you freaking kidding me guys? Are we really drafting the Seahawks defense in the eight round, where Eric Decker, Colin Kaep and Tony Romo are still on the board.
I know that fantasy players with limited experience jump at hearing the name, which impacts this ADP, but my god this makes me sick. Sure the Seahawks are likely to finish as a top 5 defense in 2014, but there are going to be waiver wire fantasy defenses and other later picks that will provide much deeper value.
Just look at the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs. They went undrafted in many leagues and finished as the 3rd best fantasy defense in standard scoring for 2013.
Bishop Sankey - ADP: 4.04
Look I love the explosiveness of Sankey, or at least the potential for it. He's the presumed starter in Tennessee, although he will have Dexter McCluster cutting into his carries some. Word out of the Titans is that they love Dexter.
As a Chiefs fan I know how explosive McCluster can be in the right situations. If they use him properly he can be a huge asset to the team.
I think Sankey wins the starting job, but being drafted in the 4th round is practically his upside in my eyes. He's a rookie who needs to learn the system, build chemistry and get a feel for the pro game. I think we need to temper expectations after the rookies success we saw with Eddie Lacy and Levon Bell in 2013.
At Sankey's current draft spot I'll pass all season long. I think he can maybe perform just to that draft spot, but I think there's better value to be had.
Emmanuel Sanders - ADP: 6.05
I understand the hype. Anyone who plays with Peyton Manning is instantly better. Do I believe that Sanders picks up where Eric Decker left off? Absolutely not.
I don't hate Sanders, I just hate him at 65 overall. I think it's too early to expect him to replicate Deckers numbers. We're bound to see Peyton regress somewhat, which means less for some receivers. I think that impacts Sanders.
Percy Harvin - ADP: 4.10
Is it just me or does a 4th round pick sound high for a guy that has only played one full season in his career?
What about the fact that the Seattle offense is a run first team?
When it comes to Percy Harvin I'm in the school of thought that seeing is believing. I'm out on Harvin in the 4th round. Way too rich for my blood.
Darren Sproles - ADP: 8.09
I've been down the Darren Sproles road before, and I've been burned. But I love what's going on in Philly. Sure I love Nick Foles and the Chip Kelly offense, to a lesser extent them some others on Let's Talk Fantasy Football, however I believe.
What I believe is that Sproles will get his fair share of looks in Philly and that he's a good value in the 8th/9th round. In fact, I'd much rather have him than the Seahwaks defense (ADP: 8.04).
I think this is a case where he's a value.
Lamar Miller - ADP: 8.05
I won't own Lamar Miller or Knowshon Moreno in 2014, plain and simple. I don't believe the fantasy value is there.
What I'm trying to say is, I'd never feel comfortable putting Miller into my starting lineup, short of a crazy deep bye week. We've seen him fail in the past and the Dolphins brought Moreno in (whom I don't believe in either).
Sure Miami beefed up that offensive line, but I just can't invest in this guy. Especially with an 8th round pick when I can take some of the following guys being drafted after him: Colston, MJD, Jordan Reed, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, etc.
Fantasy Football is a Beautiful Game
The beauty of playing fantasy football is that everyone has their own fantasy rankings and we all see values differently. I think the guys above are either over or under valued to some extent which is why I'm probably not interested.
I want to get my fantasy players as close to their floors as possible when it comes to the draft day price. If I'm paying near their ceiling there's a good chance I'll be dissapointed.
If I've learned anything it's to limit your risk, which is exactly what I plan to do.See The Best Fantasy Team Names Ever Made
For the record, I never actually played football. I have no doubt that I would get crushed running across the middle for a pass, every single time.
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