Fantasy Advice

The ADP Changes You Need to Know Before Drafting

By September 5, 2015No Comments

Winning fantasy drafts and fantasy football championships is all about finding value.

It's not a new concept. It's one that is preached by nearly everyone in the fantasy industry.

I'll show you some ADP's that have changed significantly over the past few weeks and what I think you should do about them.

If these guys are rising and falling, others are doing the opposite.

Just be aware of these guys on draft day.

If you already drafted....maybe you can target these guys if you need help? Or leverage them and sell them for more than they're truly worth.

Here's what I've got.

*All ADP's come from Fantasy Football Calculator and are based on 12-team PPR leagues.

Tom Brady's Fantasy Value in 2015

The Tom Brady deflate-gate saga has come to an least for now.

He'll play to start off the 2015 season while the NFL appeals having his suspension overturned by the courts.

Brady's fantasy ADP has risen a bit since the announcement, to no ones surprise. It's honestly probably a love-hate feeling for some. Those who drafted Brady late in their drafts prior to the suspension being overturned got a steal. He's a top 7 guy now that he's here for the entire season. I tip my hat to you.

For those of you drafting this coming weekend/week, you'll now pay a higher price. He's risen to the 7th pick in the 7th round. Still seems like a reasonable price, but things could get crazy in your draft. So be mindful of who you're drafting with.

2015 Fantasy Football Advice

He's being drafted as the 8th QB off the board currently, I think he'll rise a bit more prior to the first game of the season. Here's who he's being drafted around:

Fantasy Value - 2015 - Patriots

I think I like him at QB6. So he's still slightly undervalued. I'd put him behind Luck, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson and Manning.

Sorry Matt Ryan and Big Ben.

Side note: It's fun to see Tyrod Taylor sneak into spot #21. Our own Nick Walsh is going to be pumped.

Davante Adams Fantasy Value 2015

It's no surprise that Davante Adams has risen up draft boards. After the terrible injury to Jordy Nelson, fantasy owners began looking to the man who would step up. He was being drafted as the 6th pick of the 8th round prior to the injury and has now settled out as the 9th pick in the 3rd round. This chart from fantasy football calculator will give you an idea of how things have changed.

Maybe I'm crazy, but that seems a little high to me. I know his value has increased with the Jordy injury, but as your 3rd round pick? May be too rich for my blood. Let's look at the other WR's going around him:

Green Bay Packers - Fantasy Value - 2015

So yeah, with that I'll say he's going a bit higher than I'd like. I don't necessarily agree with all of these ADP's but I'd put him closer to WR 20 or so. I think he's more Keenan Allen than Mike Evans.

Again, it all comes down to preference. I just don't prefer him at that price.

Lamar Miller's Fantasy Value in 2015

We LOVE Lamar Miller here at Let's Talk Fantasy Football...and by we, I mean Walsh (with some background cheers from me).

We touched on him on our last fantasy podcast, but we think he's still a value at his new ADP of the 12th pick in the 2nd round.

In fact, Walsh talks about his love for Miller and asks what the rest of the world is missing on him. Here's his climb since the start of August:

Fantasy Value - Lamar Miller - 2015


Honestly, I think he could still be priced a little higher and I'd still like him.

Let's see who he's being drafted around:

Lamar Miller Fantasy Value 2015

Yeah, that about does it for me. I could go Miller about McCoy and possibly even Murray. That puts him at about the 10th RB for me.

If you're looking for a fantasy stud for 2015, look no further. Pay the price for Lamar Miller.

Ameer Abdullah's Fantasy Value in 2015

Ameer Abdullah is a guy who exploded after his preseason game against the Jets.

He was already being hyped by fantasy analysts in the offseason, but his performance took him to an entirely new level.

Based on the chart below, you can see how he rose and began coming back towards earth:

Ameer Abdullah Fantasy Value in 2015

Okay, so saying he came back to earth is a bit of an overstatement. He is still settling out as the 5th pick of the 4th round. He was the 1st pick of the 6th round on July 30th. That's one hell of a climb.

At that price he's way too rich for my blood. I'll pass for some of the other players going around him, which are:

Lamar Miller Fantasy Value 2015

Listen, I think he'll get the job in Detroit eventually. I believe in Bell in 2014, but not this year. He's getting older, injury prone, etc.

You've heard that narrative before. It reinforces my thought that paying a 4th round price for a guy who may not even be the starter for the first few weeks is extremely risky. A risk I will not take.

For the record, I snagged him in round 6 or 7 in one of my drafts recently. I'm okay with the gamble there, but not two/three rounds earlier.

Chris Ivory's Fantasy Value in 2015

The Jets are just a fun team to watch. I mean the Geno Smith fight, the oust of Rex Ryan and everything else. A very entertaining bunch.

Chris Ivory is a guy who isn't going to be a sexy pick in your draft, but it appears that people are starting to realize that he's been undervalued all offseason. Look at that climb up boards:

Chris Ivory Fantasy Value in 2015

It's been a pretty consistent climb, one that I'm okay with. I'd prefer if he'd sink back down to 6th round levels but I think it's more the market adjusting to an underpriced player rather than overvaluing him.

He's the starter in New York and that offense is going to be better than last year.

I'd roll with Ivory on my team. If his ADP climbs much higher I may not be willing however.

Greg Olsen's Fantasy Value in 2015

People have loved Greg Olsen for quite some time.

He's arguably the last guy you can snag before falling into the tight end roulette wheel we categorize as the crapshoot of tight ends for fantasy.

After Kelvin Benjamin tore his ACL we saw Olsen's value spike, I mean his ADP. Look at that climb:

Greg Olsen Fantasy Value in 2015

I don't have a problem with him climbing a bit. I think that's expected after the Kelvin injury. It's not a pick I would make as I prefer to spin the tight end roulette wheel, but to each their own. Let's see where he's going relative to his own position:

2015 Fantasy Value of Greg Olsen

Above Travis Kelce?! Madness I say.

Of course I'm a Chiefs fan, but from a fantasy perspective I think it's silly. We wrote about why Kelce is the guy to own in 2015 and our own Nick Walsh absolutely loves the guy.

If anything I guess the Olsen love has made Kelce more of a value than before, wow!

To each their own. Unless your own isn't Travis Kelce, then you're wrong.

Finding Fantasy Value in 2015

I won't lie to you, the information above won't instantly lead you to a championship.

It's more of a "bringing it to your attention" kind of article. Those are important sometimes.

Why? Because people love to get caught in their preconceived notions. Sometimes the numbers are exactly what you need.

Look for value throughout your draft and don't be afraid to reach for guys you truly love.

It's your team. And you'll be royally pissed if you don't reach a round for the guy you've coveted all season long and he goes off to have the year you dreamed about.

Have fun, be smart and enjoy the 2015 fantasy season.


Nick Schreck