Fantasy Advice

Daily Fantasy Football Advice: Winning at 50/50

By October 5, 2015 No Comments
DFS Fantasy Advice

Most of you by now have seen the obnoxious commercials where guys are winning millions playing daily fantasy football at either FanDuel or DraftKings.  They are looking nervous and excited and acting all crazy.

Is it possible to win big for $3, $5 or $20 bucks an entry?  It sure is!  It is likely?  Not even close!  There is some skill involved and picking a winning team does take skill, but also some ‘luck’ (not Andrew the way he has been playing).

I am not here to tell you that putting $5 bucks a week on a chance to win big is a mistake.  Sure beats playing the lottery (complete luck) or giving the money to a charity… wait…strike that last part.

Strategy Differences

So what are the major strategy differences between playing big tournaments where 10 – 20% of the people win versus doing a 50/50 where half the field wins?

1. Strong Pattern Of Performance

In a big tournament you need to have all the right things happen to win big.  Even to place in the money, you need to take some chances. The big tournaments require you to take risks on #3 WR’s and their QB. Finding players for under $5,000 that have multiple TD’s is hard.

However, with a 50/50 league you want stable players. Less boom/bust players.  An example would be taking Odell Beckham Jr. You know he is going to get some good numbers every week, but cost you big money. However, you may take Ruben Randle for half the cost and he could go for 125 yds and a TD, but is just as likely to go for 25 yards.   

In a 50/50 tournament you want stable production.  Guys that are steady. Marshawn Lynch will get his fair share of carries each week. Good yards, but he will cost you.  G. Bernard from the Bengals is in a time share, but can explode at times for 20 plus fantasy points.  You get the point.

To summarize: Pick the stars and find the bargains.

2. Check ALL the Little Details

Do not wait until 2 minutes before kickoff.  Start the day or so before.  Check the injury reports.  The opponent’s injury reports.  The weather forecast. Everything.  

If the #2 WR for a team is out, the #3 becomes a good play.  And if the values are already set for the week you can find a HUGE bargain.  Much like Davonte Adams was with the Packers  earlier this year. While he did not score, he has received a ton of targets through week 2.

Roughly 10 – 25% of the players will miss something that could benefit them each and every week. Do not make that mistake.

3. Let’s play Opposite!

There is a reason that Vegas wins on sports betting.  The public lets bias and perceptions skew reality.  A good example shows up this week as a 2-0 Cincinnati team travels to an 0-2 Baltimore team.  Most casual fans will think Cincy all the way, but the true shark knows Baltimore is the real play here.  Hence, Baltimore opened at -1.5 and the lined has moved to -2.5.   Money is flying in on the Ravens.

Pay attention to things like this.

Stars get their stats.  It may not be this week or next, but DeMarco Murray will not average 5 yds per game for the whole season.  Not sure he will be great, but he will have some great games.  Find them.

On the flip side, average players rarely have two or three great games in a row.  If a WR catches 4 TD in 2 games, be careful, the law of averages will catch up.   Even Randy Moss did not have 32 TD in a year.  Not even close.  He had 23!  And it was one of the best years ever.  

Get the point?   Stats balance out.  Remember that.   

I know it kind of contradicts #1 – find the pattern, but make sure the pattern is obtainable over the long haul.

*This is a guest post from 3JackAlmanac. The author’s views are entirely his or her own and may not always reflect the views of Let’s Talk Fantasy Football.

*This photo is courtesy of ALL IN and all rights are reserved by them.