I was wrong. I sat right in this same seat and preached earlier this offseason that I believed that Arian Foster should be going at the tail end of Round 1.
But times they are a changin. That’s living proof of the fickleness of fantasy football my friends. Things can change in an instant or over time, but they always change.
Arian Foster just recently returned to the practice field after a significant absence from camp. It was for a hamstring injury, yikes.
When I started off I loved Arian Foster, I really did. But as time passed more and more things began to rub me the wrong way.
Is it possible that Arian Foster isn’t worth the risk of even his current ADP? It’s time to explore.
The Current ADP of Arian Foster
I’m certainly not the only one to be bailing on Arian Foster. As indicated by his ADP, which has dropped six slots over the past 10 days, many drafters at Fantasy Football Calculator are getting skittish.
Foster’s current ADP is the 10th pick of the 2nd round in standard 10-team fantasy football leagues.
This chart, from FFC, shows how his value has fluctuated so far in 2014.
This drop could be due to him missing camp, his thoughts about retirement, his back surgery in 2013 or a combination of these factors.
As a person I respect his comments about considering retirement after his injury. I completely get it. But as a potential fantasy football owner, I’m terrified. What happens if he gets banged up again early in the season? Is he going to call it quits?
I’m not saying he will or won’t, but the fact that he’s publicly acknowledged the fact that he’s thought about it may be preparation for what is to come.
His statement on his back injury was, “Any time an athlete goes through an injury like that — a back, a neck, even knees or hips, something that puts you out for the entire season — you kind of re-evaluate your life,” Foster said. “You see what’s really important. Is getting paralyzed more important than playing with your grandkids when you’re 50, 60 years old. People die on the football field. This is a really brutal sport. Going through an injury like that, being 27 years old, I’m young, still I’m at the prime of my career. Is it worth it to try to come back?”
Also, according to Sports Injury Predictor, Foster is the player that their algorithm believes is most likely to get injured again this year. Not that anyone can predict the future, but hell, that’s not a good sign I’ve gotta think.
The title almost speaks for itself. Does anyone actually believe that the Texans are going to be a great team?
Many running backs simply produce worse numbers when their team loses or is an underdog. The Texans are going to be just that, underdogs and likely in the cellar of the division.
There’s Better Options
Better is a relative term. There are plenty of options that are no safer that what Arian Foster currently presents himself as. Forgetting about the draft strategy of passing on a RB at the beginning of the 3rd, I’d love a bunch of these guys later on, with some less risk and a lower cost.
Andre Ellington, Gio Bernard, Zac Stacy and Toby Gerhart are among those on the list. Sure some of these guys are close in price, but I believe they’re safer than what you’re grabbing in Foster.
These other running backs are nowhere near perfect, but that’s the point. The running back position provides so many questions that there’s no reason to pay full price when you can get the discount model that’ll produce at nearly the same level.
Deciding What to Do With Arian Foster in 2014
I’m going to be passing on Arian Foster in 2014. My opinion on him has simply changed and as I look for value in my draft I see Foster as too big a risk in the early rounds.
You can lose your draft by taking Arian Foster which is why I’ll opt for a safer guy.
All I’m saying is that I see more enticing options for a much lower draft day price. It’s all about finding value, and Arian Foster is simply not one.href="http://fantasyfootballpros.org/category/player-profiles/" data-color-override="false" data-hover-color-override="false" data-hover-text-color-override="#fff">Button Text
For the record, I never actually played football. I have no doubt that I would get crushed running across the middle for a pass, every single time.