Fantasy Advice

Has The Love on Allen Robinson Gone Too Far?

By July 29, 2015No Comments

I'll never tell you that you NEED to draft anyone. I may say it in lowercase letters, but uppercase is reserved for my love for Teddy Bridgewater and a few other fantasy guys.

I may be making an exception here.

Earlier this offseason, during our AFC South Podcast you'll hear the team and I talk up Allen Robinson. Loved the guy.

His ADP has risen a bunch since February. Let's see if it's too far, or if you still NEED to own him for fantasy in 2015.

Let's Explore Allen Robinson

He had a great rookie season. I think Matt even had some love for him in 2014.

I think he was simply a year early.

If you take a look at some of his closet comparables using his pro day numbers (via RotoViz), he's got some great comparisons.

Allen Robinson Fantasy Value 2015

There are two famous letdowns courtesy of Stephen Hill and Jon Baldwin....but Robinson has already had a better rookie season than they both did. So I'm looking past those negatives.

Plus the positives. There's some sweet names there.

Also, for what it's worth.... Robinson and Dez are the two most similar WR's in the database according to @Fantasy_Mansion.

He's going to get a ton of targets in 2015, to the delight of fantasy owners everywhere.

I'm also not worried about Bortles throwing him the ball. But let's wait for my expectations below.

My 2015 Expectations for Allen Robinson

Big things folks. Big things.

The RotoViz team has him projected for 130 targets in 2015.

Now that probably sounds good to most fantasy owners. I don't think it's good enough.

Here's why.

Last season he had 81 targets in 10 games. That translates to 130 targets in a season.

With him no longer being a rookie you'd expect somewhat of an increase. A man by the name of Cecil also departed.

With his departure you have 110 targets left that need to be passed around.

Robinson won't get all of them. He'll get a bunch though.

What I like even more than the increased targets is the fact that Cecil had 16 red zone targets. Robinson had 5 last year. That number is going up for fantasy owners in 2015.

I also think that Robinson's talent can overcome the poor QB play of Blake Bortles.

Josh Gordon did it in Cleveland. Robinson can in Jacksonville.

Allen Robinson's 2015 Fantasy ADP

Look back to February 2015 and you could have snagged Robinson for a mere 13th round pick. One that owners would never have thought twice about.

Fast forward to today (July 2015) and he's going in the early 7th round.

That's quite the climb.

Here's his progress via Fantasy Football Calculator, with league settings for PPR and 10-team leagues.

Fantasy Advice - Allen Robinson - 2015

I'm not quite ready to tell you if I think he's risen too far.

All I'm doing is pointing out the obvious, that he's gotten substantially more expensive.

First, let's look at the WR's going from WR20-WR32 to provide some perspective on him and who I like him more than.

Fantasy Football Advice - Allen Robinson - 2015

WR27. That's his current ADP.

I'm still thrilled that he's going there, but I think it's a steal.

I'd take him over Bryant(WR24), Landry(WR25) and Watkins(WR26). All guys that are going almost a full round before him, in some cases.

The guys after him? Yeah I'd take Robinson over all of them.

What you're probably beginning to see is that I think he's still a great value. And therefore the love hasn't gone nearly far enough.

All Together Now

Being drafted as WR27 is great value in my eyes.

I clearly don't think the love has gone too far on Allen Robinson.

In fact, I think you need to go get him. Even if he becomes a WR2 you're thrilled for that price.

He may just become a little bit more valuable than that.

What do you have to lose? Not that much.

Photo courtesy of joeshlabotnik via Flickr. Used with permission via Creative Commons. All rights reserved to Joeshlabotnik.

Nick Schreck