Fantasy Advice

So You're Saying There's A Chance: The Case for AP at #1

By July 3, 2015No Comments

Could Adrian Peterson be getting overlooked? It's possible.

Maybe overlooked isn't the right word.

Quite frankly most people seem to be split into 2 camps: they either believe that he can be a fantasy star in 2015 or they don't.

I'm in the believe category.

Why you ask? I think he'll be a stud and a value.

For those who are in the latter category they'll likely mention that he just recently turned 30 and he'll be rusty after having a year off.

I'll tell you why in a second, but I think both of those excuses are crap. At least they are to me.

"So You're Saying There's a Chance" is a series where I'll tell you why I believe each player is worth the #1 pick. With CJ Anderson already written about, it's AP's turn to shine.

Peterson has one hell of a resume

As Mike Clay so elegantly puts in his ESPN article on why AP deserves to be #1, Peterson is a fucking stud.

I know we shouldn't dwell on the past, but man it seems so easy to do when theres good things to look back on.

AP has scored 10 or more touchdowns every season from 2007-2013. He played in at least 12 games every year during that stretch and was never below 1,100 yards. (per Mike Clay)

That sounds pretty damn impressive.

Still not feeling it?

Let's see if this does it for you.

Peterson has a league-high 1,548 carries against opposing base defenses since his rookier year, he's currently got a 5.2 yards-per-carry (second best to Jamaal Charles at 5.5) among 60 RB's with 350-plus carries.(per Mike Clay)

Ask anyone you know, this guy is good.

I doubted him before

Remember when AP tore his ACL in 2011?

I swore he wouldn't play well for fantasy in the 2012 season.

I passed on him multiple times and I was so wrong.

He went on to enjoy a career year in 2012 to the tune of 2,314 yards and 13 touchdowns on 388 touches.

It's true that he was 27-years-old, but he bounced back incredibly. I can't ignore that.

I'm not saying that I fear missing out this time, all I'm saying is that this time isn't an injury.

I expect him to bounce back for 2015 fantasy owners just fine.

I hate Norv Turner, but he always seems to make an impact

Did you know that Adrian Peterson has had almost no fantasy impact as a receiver?

Seriously. Almost none.

He's averaged 29.4 receptions per year and has had a total of 5 touchdowns. FIVE.

On the flip side we have Norv Turner.

I hate Norv. But what his running backs have done historically is important.

They've averaged 104 receptions per season and totaled 31 receiving touchdowns. I wrote about why I loved Norv and AP last year, I guess better late then never right?

In his first year with the Vikings his running backs had 82 receptions, and they were pretty unimpressive with them.

That means AP should stay on the field for passing downs.

That's good news for fantasy owners.

I've gotta imagine he'll surpass his career high of 43 receptions and 436 yards.

Seems like fantasy owners should start believing what I'm preaching.

The Vikings are better than you think

Teddy Bridgewater is gonna be a stud.

Okay, so he isn't the only reason. You've probably already heard about my love affair with him so I won't bore you with the details here. But he's got some great downfield accuracy.

How about an improved supporting cast on offense.

Mike Wallace joins the Vikings and Kyle Rudolph is finally healthy. So those are positives. (I secretly had a thing for Rudolph last year because of Norv)

We know the Vikings are going to lean on Adrian Peterson in 2015, which means happy fantasy owners.

There are totally risks here

There are risks with nearly anyone you'll consider with the #1 pick in 2015 fantasy drafts.

That's just the way this year is shaping up.

Two of the biggest risks center on his age and the fact that he's missed nearly a season.

Looking at his age, I'd say that it isn't a death sentence. Although I understand the concern.

According to ESPN "Over the past 15 years, 13 running backs 30 years old or older have put together a season with 1,000 scrimmage yards and at least 10 touchdowns. That includes 30-year-old Priest Holmes' 2,110-yard, 27-touchdown 2003 campaign."

What I'm getting at is...I'm just not that worried.

I think he'll be a stud. Period.

His track record makes me feel better about taking a chance. And although it hurts to say I believe in Norv Turner, I think he'll make a big impact.

I say go get Adrian Peterson for fantasy football in 2015.

The big question you trust him?

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Nick Schreck