The tight end position in fantasy football sucks. There, I said it.
It sucks because there's such a small tier of elites and then theres a mountain of shit.
It's a mountain because, well they're all so similar that it's a roll of the dice.
Anyone that tells you differently is a liar. Or I've just been missing out on this piece of fantasy for the last 9 years.
By now we all know that Rob Gronkowski is a stud. STUD.
He's fantasy gold and you want to own him, if he fits your style of play and 2015 fantasy draft strategy.
The guy I think that still isn't getting enough credit is Travis Kelce. Does that sound crazy to you?
I can't blame you if it does.
There's plenty of people who believe he's already being overvalued.
I still see opportunity.
I'm not nearly as high on him as fellow Let's Talk Fantasy Footballer, Nick Walsh. But boy I do love Kelce.
Maybe it's my Chiefs bias, maybe's its the numbers and potential.
Actually, I think it's a combination of the two.
Who Is Travis Kelce?
You probably already know who he is, but I just wanted to share some of my favorite Kelce moments. Maybe it's because I'm a Chiefs fans, maybe it's not.
Regardless I think the guys pretty cool and he's even been compared to another great fantasy football tight end.
So here he is.
Remember that guy who made the jerking off motion on TV? That was him:
He later tweeted the gesture wasn't towards the ref and that Von Miller took a cheap shot at his quarterback so he thought he deserved a shot to the face.
Travis Kelce had a great response on Twitter to a fan question:
This isn't related to football in any way, I just think it speaks to who he is as a person. Pretty fucking cool if you ask me.
Travis Kelce's football life:
According to playerprofiler, Travis Kelce has been given quite the comparison...Rob Gronkowski.
That guy is pretty good, at least I think so.
We'll delve into his stats in a minute. I just wanted to throw in your face the comparisons that are being used, because it'll help me sell you on why you should be all in on Travis Kelce for 2015 fantasy success.
For the record, I read a great Kelce article over on RotoViz that inspired me to dive deeper here.
Get on the Train
Travis Kelce is currently the fourth tight end off the board in PPR 2015 redraft fantasy football leagues and the 56th player overall (according to fantasy football calculator). There are some who think the Travis Kelce hype train is gaining too much speed, I'll show you why there's plenty more room to go.
Don't fear Alex Smith
I get it, no seriously I do. I've been a Chiefs fan since before I could talk, so I understand the complaints about Alex Smith. While some of them are legitimate, you should throw out the limited volume note. According to RotoViz, Kelce was the mist efficient target Alex Smith has every had by Adjusted Yards per Attempt (at least 50 targets):
See that name at #2? That's Vernon Davis, a guy who had 2 consecutive top-two campaigns in '09 and '10 with Smith. Helloooooo Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs are going to score more touchdowns
In the red zone in 2014 Travis Kelce was pretty good, catching 10 of 13 balls for 5 touchdowns.
I'm going to throw some math in here now, so stay with me.
Anthony Fasano and Dwayne Bowe are both gone, leaving a combination of 13 targets and 5 touchdowns on the table.
So assuming he gets all of those targets and touchdowns (unrealistic), we're talking about double the opportunity. DOUBLE.
Of course he likely won't double it. But with the coaching staff hopefully making an effort to get the ball to an extremely effective Redzone option his 5 touchdowns last year feels more like a floor than a ceiling, but maybe that's just me.
Looking at his 2015 Fantasy Value
Ok, so I'm grabbing for some straws with my example of doubling things, but it seems totally possible.
The arguement around Kelce rests solely on getting a few more targets per game. Can someone please call Reid and make this happen?
I'll say that it did seem like Kelce was on a pitch count for some of 2014 as he was used on only 2/3 of the Chiefs offensive snaps. That doesn't seem right.
RotoViz used the projection machine to try and figure out 2015, here's how they explained it in their own words:
"If we leave KC’s offense on the default settings, give the tight end 22 percent of targets (for a total of 120 on the season, or almost exactly two more per game) and set his catch rate (75 percent), yards per attempt (9.5), and touchdown rate (0.055) to their 2014 levels, Kelce’s 2015 season looks like this"
This is a 119.88 targets, 89.91 receptions, 1,138.8 yards and 6.59 touchdowns. That equals 240 points on the season with just 2 more targets per game.
Sign me up.
Here's What You Should Do
If you believe that Kelce is as good as his numbers show and that Andy Reid will truly make him a bigger part of the passing game, then you need to own him.
At his current ADP I think he's a value. Yes a value.
If you don't believe in those things, pass on him. But I can't wait to throw it in your face when it works out.
I'm all aboard the Travis Kelce train. We'll see if it can stay the course.
Current ADP for 12 Team Leagues (via FantasyFootballCalculator)
PPR: Round 5, Pick 6
Standard: Round 5, Pick 7
Some are yelling all aboard and others are trying to step on the breaks. What do you believe we'll see in 2015?
For the record, I never actually played football. I have no doubt that I would get crushed running across the middle for a pass, every single time.
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